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Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Near Pain Point Last Seen In October 2024

According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, long‑term Bitcoin holders are sitting on unrealized gains last seen during the October 2024 market dip. Right now, those holders show an average profit of 220% on coins they bought and held for the long run. That figure is surprisingly low given Bitcoin’s recent surge back above $107,000.

Lower Profit Levels Than Previous Peaks

Darkfost used the MVRV ratio — market value relative to the average cost paid by long‑term holders — to track these shifts. In March 2024, when Bitcoin pushed up to $74,500, MVRV hit 300%. Then in December 2024, at the $108,000 peak, it climbed to 350%. By contrast, today’s 220% gain reflects the fact that many long‑term holders bought in at much higher levels than earlier in the cycle.

Price Needs To Rise To Match Past Gains

Based on an average cost basis of $33,800, Bitcoin would need to climb back to $135,200 just to restore that 300% profit level. If the market aimed to hit the 357% mark again, prices would have to reach roughly $154,400. Both figures track with what history tells us about investor behavior — people tend to sell when profits hit big round numbers.

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